Insights, commentary and news

When a crisis strikes, we're all drawn to survival mode. When the dust clears a bit, we look for ways to quickly improve on our initial reactions. Then, we step back to make big adjustments.

Objectivity is one of the most important requirements to making big adjustments; it's important to step outside the trees to get a view of  the forest.

To help on the objectivity front, we asked Phil Johnston, Marcus Thomas Strategy and Research partner, to share his thoughts on five big questions surfacing around the pandemic and its impact on consumer behavior and marketing, in general.

Q: What are the lessons marketers should be learning as the COVID-19 pandemic continues?

A: There’s so much for all of us to learn from what’s been going on in 2020, it’s hard to isolate just a couple of things, but here goes. First, all brands aspire to be important to their customers, their consumers. I think that we’ve learned that if we want to be important to them, we have to be important in their lives, not just on their shelves. The pandemic has shown that brands can play important roles – even in times of crisis – if we think in terms of how we can help people, not just sell to people. Second, and related, this focus on helping people shouldn’t just be a response to crisis. The business of all brands in all situations is to help people, to make their lives better. Brand marketing should be doing the same thing – helping make people’s lives better all the time and in every situation.

Q: What consumer behaviors have surprised you during the current pandemic?

A: It’s not surprising that people early on stocked up on necessities, like toilet paper and canned goods. What’s more surprising is how, as the pandemic has been ongoing, people have been finding creative ways to adapt. There were waitlists for bicycles, outdoor pools and even inflatable hot tubs. People began equipping their home offices with video game gear, like special chairs, monitors and headsets. There’s also been something of a resurgence in the barter economy as people are looking to trade surplus items with their friends and neighbors rather than buying. What’s equally surprising, though completely understandable, is people’s persistent belief in a clear and categorical end to the pandemic. People say things like, “when this is over” or “when things are back to normal,” as though there’s going to be a hard stop to the pandemic and a sudden dramatic return to life as it was before.

Q: What else has changed for consumers?

A: The easy – and wrong – answer would be that everything has changed. The reality is a much more mixed bag, depending on an individual’s circumstances, personality and even their politics. Despite the “we’re all in this together” language we’ve seen thrown about, we’re really not all in this together. People’s experiences and reactions are all over the board. Some are working from home. Some are unemployed. Some are in factories or job sites or delivering groceries. Some remote workers love it, some truly and deeply hate it. Some people are nervous and fearful. Others are reckless and defiant. People’s emotions in difficult times are powerful and turbulent, and each of us experiences different emotions – even when faced with the same situations. It also throws off all the stability- and predictability-based models and approaches we’re used to using. All of which makes this a real challenge for marketers, and one that suggests we rethink our existing segmentation strategies. The different circumstances of people in this crisis and how they’re reacting behaviorally – and, more importantly, how they’re reacting emotionally – is a much more powerful influence on their attitudes, beliefs and behaviors than whether they’re a millennial or baby boomer, their household income, or their social media use.

Q: What about marketers? What has surprised you about what marketers are doing?

A: There’s been a lot of virtual ink spilled praising or condemning various brands and marketers for their reactions and initiatives in the current crisis. Those successes and failures are bound to happen as each of us try to figure out how to navigate these waters. But what has been shocking – truly shocking – to me is the confidence with which marketers, analysts and others are predicting the future. They’re painting pictures of the “post-COVID-19 consumer” or forecasting people’s buying behaviors in 2022 – yes, 2022. It’s wrong on so many levels. First, research has demonstrated that expert predictions generally are hardly more accurate than “dart-throwing chimps,”⁽¹⁾ even in more normal times. Second, COVID-19 is a black swan event if there ever was one. And black swans – by their uniqueness and the pervasiveness of their impact – create unanticipated ripples throughout societies and markets for years. Third, we’re still in the middle of the swirling storm. There’s no way to tell how it will play out months or years from now. Nobody knows really. And I wouldn’t trust anyone who says they do know.

Q: So, how should marketers approach planning for 2021 or beyond?

A: First, I’d suggest not thinking too far beyond 2021, for all the reasons given above. Second, in the world of forecasting, observers have said that there are hedgehogs and there are foxes. The former base their forecasts on single, large anchoring events like COVID-19. The latter mix those big events in with lots of other events and trends and look at all of them together. Ignore the hedgehogs; listen to the foxes. Anyone who talks about how COVID-19 has changed everything or revolutionized this or that – they’re hedgehogs. COVID-19 is a powerful influence on markets and people, but it’s only one of many powerful influences – some of which, like human psychological and sociological needs, don’t change very quickly at all. Lastly, I’d suggest using a technique like scenario planning as marketers look to 2021. No one knows what July 2021 will be like, but we can envision different probable versions of that future state. Scenario planning lets us foresee those possible futures and then plan against them without committing to one or the other until a particular future state becomes more probable. It enables us to be strategic, but nimble, responding thoughtfully and purposefully to a very uncertain present and equally uncertain future.

• Tetlock, Philip Superforecasting.